Ideas

Crumbling Commodities - Barron's

2011-11-26T22:00:00.001-08:00

I thought you would be interested in the following story from Barron's.

Crumbling Commodities

http://online.barrons.com/article/SB50001424052748703827804577056490395721160.html

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Good Oil usage/production data

2011-11-20T20:21:00.001-08:00

Selling the Oil Illusion, American Style

Message from sender:

Good data

Published on Chris Martenson (http://www.chrismartenson.com)

Selling the Oil Illusion, American Style

By Gregor Macdonald

Created 11/14/2011 - 11:12

"The task of the real intellectual consists of analyzing illusions in order to discover their causes." ~ Arthur Miller

US production of crude oil peaked in 1970 at 9.637 mbpd (million barrels per day) and has been in a downtrend for 40 years. Recently, however, there's been a tremendous amount of excitement at the prospect of a "new era" in domestic oil production. The narratives currently being offered come in the following three forms: 1) the US has more oil than Saudi Arabia; 2) the US need only to remove regulatory barriers to significantly increase production; and 3) the US can once again become self-sufficient in oil production, dropping all imported oil to zero.

Let's first take a look at over 70 years of US oil production.

read more »

Source URL (retrieved on 11/20/2011 - 23:21): http://www.chrismartenson.com/blog/selling-oil-illusion-american-style/64852

Research in Motion Resurfaces - Barron's

2011-11-19T09:50:00.001-08:00

I thought you would be interested in the following story from Barron's.

Research in Motion Resurfaces

http://online.barrons.com/article/SB50001424052748704677404577044493464420820.html

Barron's iPad Edition delivers:

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Ways to Play U.S. Oil and Gas Shale Boom - Barron's

2011-11-19T09:48:00.001-08:00

I thought you would be interested in the following story from Barron's.

Ways to Play U.S. Oil and Gas Shale Boom

http://online.barrons.com/article/SB50001424052748704101304577037911754659788.html

Barron's iPad Edition delivers:

Full articles from the latest edition of Barron's magazine every week
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Visit the Apple iTunes App Store for a free download.

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U.S. Refiners Tumble on Plan to Reverse Seaway Crude Pipeline

2011-11-16T19:22:00.001-08:00

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/CLCO1:IND
Brent-WTI Spread

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/CRK321M1:IND
Crack Spread

Flash Player 9 or higher is required to view the chart
Click here to download Flash Player now

View the full MPC chart at Wikinvest

A Glass Act on the Cheap - Barron's

2011-11-12T22:55:00.001-08:00

I thought you would be interested in the following story from Barron's.

A Glass Act on the Cheap

http://online.barrons.com/article/SB50001424052748703893804577024431891395776.html

Barron's iPad Edition delivers:

Full articles from the latest edition of Barron's magazine every week
Intraday market analysis and commentary from Barrons.com every weekday
Market data and tools, like quote search and customizable watchlists

Visit the Apple iTunes App Store for a free download.

Click or tap the link below to download Barron's from the Apple iTunes App Store.

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Agri ETF notes

2011-11-12T22:07:00.001-08:00

Agri DBA is best bet as it holds less of commodities that have run up the most. See http://etfdb.com/2010/agriculture-etfs-head-to-head-dba-vs-jja/. Also AGU tracks DBA and is also cheapest of all crop-input plays

b rgrds,

Jawad Ayaz
20 North Online Pvt Ltd.
+91 98801 52923

Buy anything in the world from anywhere in India

It's Time to Ring Up Vodafone - Barron's

2011-11-12T21:45:00.001-08:00

I thought you would be interested in the following story from Barron's.

It's Time to Ring Up Vodafone

http://online.barrons.com/article/SB50001424052748703358004577026083733256496.html

Barron's iPad Edition delivers:

Full articles from the latest edition of Barron's magazine every week
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Visit the Apple iTunes App Store for a free download.

Click or tap the link below to download Barron's from the Apple iTunes App Store.

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Oil Markets: Forget WTI For Now And Concentrate On Brent - Forbes

2011-11-08T11:39:00.001-08:00


Oil Markets: Forget WTI For Now And Concentrate On Brent - Forbes Source: forbes.com Historically considered the U.S. benchmark for crude oil, WTI is no longer a reliable price index, according to a note released by Nomura on Monday. The $20 spread between WTI and Brent, the international benchmark, is the consequence of a localized logistic phenomenon at Cushing, Oklahoma, where WTI is priced, [...]
Crack spread chart http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/CRK321M1:IND/chart

The Holy Grail of Investing

2011-11-08T09:23:00.001-08:00

pick an industry with strong 5-10 year growth tailwinds.
Internet Media. Mobile eco-system. Agri productivity. Complex manufacturing (aerospace, defence, auto). IT distribution in India/China.
Allocate

pick a country whose intellectual capital (differentiated know how) + policy support (incl finance) creates a winning price advantage on a global basis
pick a company whose sustainable USP* + scale + market reach + monopoly position (optional)
creates a winning price/performance advantage in their market
* technology, design, process, cost arbitrage, or combination thereof
Then pick a company that HAS leveraged this position to create a global brand that can create non-linear profits and share premium
for Germany it is high precision manufacturing. Buy the brand = Benz, BMW, etc.
for US it is technology, aerospace, defence, and digital media (global footprint). Buy the brands = Google, Apple, Boeing, etc.
for India IT-levered and domestic market scale is global advantage but this stems purely from price arbitrage (advantage diminishes over time) so need to look for other industry's that have unique advantage or are in pole position in the domestic market.
Airtel, Titan, Bata, Tata Motors, Jain, Banks buy tier2 which are modernizing (Axis, Yes, IDBI). HDFC and ICICI are too highly priced
Can India move up the value chain from low-cost IT skills provider? The way Japan did in autos and electronics?
At all times buy when price is low

BIG Theme ....US Nat Gas and US Agri inputs

2011-11-08T09:22:00.001-08:00

US Nat gas prices will stay subdued as massive supply comes on line
Better bet is:
a) industries that use nat gas as inputs (fertilizers)
b) eco system that will deliver nat gas to new users (pipelines, filling stations)
c) ecosystem that will deliver cheap US nat gas to global markets where nat gas prices are 2-3x and are pegged to oil prices
d) US exploration and production ecosystem as govt policy mandates more domestic oil&gas supply

US Govt. focus on and support of Domestic Oil&Gas is low hanging fruit from an energy independence and from a jobs creation perspective. Building a nat gas fueling infrastructure is a great nation building project.

Barrons.com - A Golden Moment for Domestic Refiners

2011-11-06T10:34:00.001-08:00

Barrons.com - A Golden Moment for Domestic Refiners*

An article from Businessweek.com

2011-11-06T01:54:00.000-08:00

Jawad Ayaz sent you a Businessweek.com article and the following message:

Shale gas

Could Shale Gas Reignite the U.S. Economy?

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Mining Costs Are Up for Platinum - Barron's, pplt

2011-11-06T01:51:00.000-08:00

I thought you would be interested in the following story from Barron's.

Mining Costs Are Up for Platinum

http://online.barrons.com/article/SB50001424052748703340004577010241423922020.html

Barron's iPad Edition delivers:

Full articles from the latest edition of Barron's magazine every week
Intraday market analysis and commentary from Barrons.com every weekday
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Visit the Apple iTunes App Store for a free download.

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Tap into the Unlocked Value of Williams Cos. - Barron's

2011-11-05T23:58:00.001-07:00

I thought you would be interested in the following story from Barron's.

Tap into the Unlocked Value of Williams Cos.

http://online.barrons.com/article/SB50001424052748703870604577015973907386212.html

Barron's iPad Edition delivers:

Full articles from the latest edition of Barron's magazine every week
Intraday market analysis and commentary from Barrons.com every weekday
Market data and tools, like quote search and customizable watchlists

Visit the Apple iTunes App Store for a free download.

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Rail Picks With Bakken Upside - Barron's

2011-11-05T23:52:00.000-07:00

I thought you would be interested in the following story from Barron's.

Rail Picks With Bakken Upside

http://online.barrons.com/article/SB50001424052748703870604577016331781792346.html

Barron's iPad Edition delivers:

Full articles from the latest edition of Barron's magazine every week
Intraday market analysis and commentary from Barrons.com every weekday
Market data and tools, like quote search and customizable watchlists

Visit the Apple iTunes App Store for a free download.

Click or tap the link below to download Barron's from the Apple iTunes App Store.

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Barrons.com - Marathon Petroleum Ready to Run

2011-11-03T10:56:00.001-07:00

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Barrons.com - Marathon Petroleum Ready to Run*


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Fertilizer

2011-10-30T09:54:00.000-07:00

Potash is a way to play a long-term secular theme: the globalization of better diets, which are reaching emerging markets. Better diets mean an increase in higher-quality protein. If you upgrade from chicken to pork to beef, this requires multiple-times more feed input to generate that same unit of protein. Currently, fertilizer use is low relative to what would be scientifically optimal. Supply-and-demand dynamics are favorable and Potash is trading at a discount to where it should be.

Also, farmers are flush right now, with the money to spend on fertilizer.

That's right. An uptick in Potash shares would be impeded if fertilizer were too expensive, which it isn't, and if farmers didn't have the cash to spend, which isn't the case. Given the robust crop market and higher crop prices, farmers' balance sheets are solid. I expect the uptick to work.

Also look at TNH

MPC and USO analysis

2011-10-30T05:00:00.001-07:00

- WTI weighting reduced in oil benchmark indexes, will pressure price as indexed purchases (ETFs) and speculative futures purchases reduce. Futures being sold off ...moving to backwardation
- US production increasing so oil price should stay lower than brent
- US govt incentivised to get WTI out of indexes and futures to avoid spec premium

Will keep mpc in drivers seat

WTI, Brent Oil Set to Reconcile

http://online.barrons.com/article/SB50001424052748704407404576651354193488820.html

Buy JO

2011-10-30T04:59:00.001-07:00

More inclusive global growth -> agri Commodities -> coffee
- global consumption increasing with price insensitive demand
- inelastic supply ..takes 3-5 years to add
- cost of production is increasing
- weather is more unpredictable
- no government intervention that distorts prices

But BIGGEST price factor is Brazil crop